As we continue to look forward to next year, for the latest edition of our ongoing series posing questions relevant to indie beauty, we asked 19 fragrance brand founders, executives and experts the following questions: What fragrance trend do you see rising in 2023? What 2022 fragrance trend do you think will be over?
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Vicken Arslanian Founder and President, Europerfumes and Commodity “Beast mode” is word of the year for me. It’s incredible how the American consumer has shifted from wanting subtle fragrances a decade ago to a philosophy of “more is more” today. The stronger, the better. The longer lasting, the better. The greater projection, the better. I’m really surprised about this trend. I think it’s here to stay for a while.
2021 was an incredible year for niche perfumery. The category was on fire and, in 2022, retail stores started adding one new brand after another to feed the demand. While I don’t think the trend of adding new brands to retail stores will be over in 2023, I do think stores will slow down and focus on existing brands.
Getting into a store is actually much easier than staying in the store. 2023 should be a year to weed out some of the brands that probably do not belong.
- Bee Shapiro Founder, Ellis Brooklyn
I love where gen Z is taking fragrance, which is this very in-depth, very passionate place. It's not about finding your one scent and wearing it until the end of time. It's about finding several gorgeous fragrances as a great launching point and then dabbling in new scents here and there for your own mood, for your own self-expression and for your own pleasure. I think this new thinking of fragrance as pure self-pleasure will continue and expand.
I'm over the over-candied gourmand. That reigned long and hard for the last few years. I think gourmand will continue to be a well-loved category, but I could see gourmand scents become more sophisticated, nuanced and unexpected. I could also see the super candy-like gourmands layer well with new categories and scents like fresh/green and woodsy/spicy.
- Wonny Lee Co-Founder and CEO, Elorea
I believe we will be seeing more and more reformulations throughout next year. The fragrance industry has a front row seat on the impact of climate change because of the rare materials we use in our products. Many precious materials are dying.
Furthermore, synthetic oils have gotten a lot of unnecessary and frankly incorrect negative attention in the media and marketing. The truth is, in order to create a more sustainable industry and combat climate change, brands and manufacturers need to explore alternative formulations.
With more people now stepping out of their homes, I believe the home fragrance products will begin to cool off and perfumes, particularly travel-sized, will take off dramatically.
- Frances Shoemack Founder and CEO, Abel
We’re really interested in NPD using biotech ingredients that are produced by mycelium and yeasts. This territory of natural science is truly about innovation and closed loop manufacturing, which really reduces impact. This is a really exciting space with so much potential, and I believe will be the future of conscious beauty.
We love seeing customers demanding more transparency from brands and hope the category responds to that in 2023. Modern conscious consumers are educated beyond the broad-sweeping (and often ambiguous or misleading) claims that brands use to tick their “impact” boxes. This certainly can’t be a trend that continues.
- Cristina Bagozzi Founder, Emmotiv
"Functional"/benefit-driven fragrance will continue to grow, with scent playing an increasingly meaningful role in wellness rituals. In 2023, I expect to see more scented products across price points and formats intentionally designed to evoke specific emotions through mood-elevating notes. Since new brands are all interpreting the space differently, consumers will be in for a delightful treat as they explore this new emotion-positive fragrance playground.
Self-expression and creative authenticity will continue to challenge the conventional blueprint for fragrance marketing. The rise of authentically passionate, education-focused influencers and indie perfumers with a fresh, social-first approach to content is flipping the script on fragrance marketing. Over-produced ads featuring the celebrity de jour engaging in a stale fantasy (cue the shirtless horseback riders) will have a harder time competing with disruptive, enthusiast-generated content especially resonant with gen Z.
Consumers will continue to seek more ingredient transparency from brands and products in line with the rest of the beauty industry. However, this is a unique disruption for the fragrance industry, which traditionally does not disclose ingredients. With this comes an increased emphasis on sourcing and sustainability as the definition of "clean” ingredients continues to evolve.
In terms of outgoing trends, oddly enough, I anticipate a decline in consumer overreliance on what is "trendy" to inform their purchasing decisions. Celebrity endorsements, while still impactful when done authentically, will continue to carry less weight as consumers embrace experimentation, self-expression, layering and treating fragrance as a self-pleasing extension of their individuality.
- Brianna Arps Founder and CEO, Moodeaux
Rather than any particular fragrance note per se, the biggest fragrance trend next year will be safety. Safety regarding ingredient transparency and global sustainability in particular given the growing concern amongst consumers.
Our slice of the beauty industry pie has minimal U.S. government regulation, which disincentivizes fragrance manufacturers and companies from making changes to their products and/or operations that would maybe cost more, but lessen potential harm. Those who move toward addressing the safety issue will thereby further amplify its overall importance.
There's no denying the scientific connection between our sense of smell and its ability to trigger memory, influence mood, stir emotion, etc. Almost three years ago, when the COVID-19 pandemic was arguably at its worst, fragrance transformed from a luxury good to a valuable tool for escapism from what was then our collective new reality.
The "fragrance effect" went rampant, with U.S. prestige sales in 2021 alone surging upwards of 49% year-over-year. Reports state 2022 sales between Q1 to Q3 slowed, but still grew.
As time progresses, I believe we'll always find consolation as well as fulfillment through scent. Yet, how this occurs will likely shift inward. I really foresee fragrance consumption evolving into a more direct medium for self-care through self-expression. Rather than wearing our favorite scents just to feel something, those who indulge, especially millennials and gen Zers, will reach for fragrance to "accessorize" their feelings instead.
- Tanya Gonzalez Co-Founder, Eauso Vert
After emerging from our COVID isolation, the desire to express our individuality has never seemed greater. And while makeup and fashion have always presented an opportunity for self-expression, there is a renewed interest in fragrance and its ability to add variety to our overall look or mood.
The last couple of years have called for scents that cocoon, soothe and wrap us up in feelings of comfort, but 2023 will be all about revival. We are seeing more and more coverage on social media of fragrance profiles that are complex, multilayered and slightly less conventional, and I suspect that this will only become more common as we head into the new year.
Overall, I’ve observed people’s taste in fragrance becoming increasingly more dynamic, and some of this can be attributed to the voices that have leveraged TikTok as a means to publish reviews on some of their favorite perfume findings. I turn to my favorite perfume TikTokers to learn more about certain scent choices the same way I lean on Bon Appétit magazine to help me find the latest restaurant and wine recommendations.
Scent discovery has become such an open discussion that it’s broadened our horizons and piqued our curiosities, contributing to the end of the signature scent era. We’ll spritz based on mood and experiment with fragrance to tell our very-own multi-sensorial story.
- Faye Harris Co-Founder, Eauso Vert
There will be a focus on more sustainable ingredient sourcing. There has been a bigger emphasis on sustainable elements within packaging across fragrance and beauty in general. However, we will see a bigger lens on the origin of the ingredients used within the actual formulas themselves, where and how these ingredients are being sourced, what the social and environmental impact of that is, and how this can change or adapt the perfumer's palette of scents to work with.
With a more open conversation around transparency of ingredients used within fragrance, which has historically been kept a little secret (not shared on product labels), perfumers are creating in a way that is either using ingredients that are seasonal, upcycled or using synthetic versions of something otherwise not in season.
Likewise, brands will be marketing this to the consumer by sharing knowledge that would still otherwise be difficult for the consumer to know unless having insight. Ultimately, there will be a closer connection and visibility across the brand, the perfumers and fragrance houses, and suppliers.
- Sarah McCartney Founder and Perfumer, 4160Tuesdays
In 2023, we are all going to be buying smaller bottles of fragrances, ones we really love. Buying larger bottles to get better value isn’t going to cut it anymore. Cash flow will be more important than price per milliliter. Taking a flyer on a “blind buy” is a risk fewer people want to take as the crunch hits.
Since lockdowns, more companies sell taster sets so you can try before you buy without having to go to a store. At 4160Tuesdays, we introduced a 15-ml. bottle size, and it’s by far our most popular online choice.
Stores are becoming showrooms for people to try not buy, then order online later. For indie perfumers, this is great. We want people to take time to fall in love with our scents, not to buy something in a hard sell situation that they’ll only regret later. Indie brands need opportunities to rent small spaces for customers to test and buy later.
In the U.K., Italy and China, Lone Design Club is doing this really well for innovative fashion and beauty brands. In London, they are partnering with The Crown Estate, filling temporarily empty retail spaces with refreshing ideas.
Wearing fragrances to please ourselves is a constructive ongoing trend. We’ve discovered that scent supports our mental wellbeing, spraying it when we’re staying in and meeting no-one just to put a smile on our own faces, to comfort ourselves with our favorite aromas. It’s not about being noticed, it’s about feeling better.
Also, the notion of only wearing fragrance to attract others is getting really tired. I like to be complimented on my fragrance, probably more than most people, but I don’t want anyone to think it’s an invitation. We wear it because we love it.
The visible preparations for going out—our smart clothes and makeup—might fall by the wayside when we’re working from home, but the invisible benefits of fragrance are with us whether we’re going to be seen or not.
We’re moving towards renewables and better use of resources. Using a thousand rose petals to make a bottle of perfume is no longer something to boast about, not when it depletes the water supply and the land could be used for food crops. Green chemistry producing high yields of biodegradable molecules will be the way forward.
Irrational attachment to naturals has got to change. I don’t see this happening in a hurry, and there will be resistance from consumers who didn’t enjoy school science and can easily be frightened by irresponsible scare stories. Scent scientists are going to have to come out of the shadows and gently reassure people that aroma molecules are usually safer than essential oils, which they really are, but it’s not often said out loud.
Not all naturals are sustainable or ethical. Brands have got to start facing up to the fact that a monoculture rose field might not be as good for the environment as a safe European factory that returns river water cleaner than they found it.
Fragrance trends change slowly, and they’re invisible. This makes them that much harder to perceive. For the last ten years, people have said oud is over, but it’s not. Green fragrances tried to push through again during the last couple of years, but it’s like seedlings trying to shove their way through the cracks in a parking lot.
Occasionally, one makes it, but the trend for sugary floral musks and intense woody ambers is still with us. In niche fragrance, these are done intensely and perhaps ironically, but they’re still at the top of the bestseller lists.
Buyers are beginning to push back against power scents and realize that longevity is not a good enough reason to buy. It’s like judging a poem on how many lines it has, not the way its words move you. Beauty is being sacrificed in exchange for a scent that will stay 48 hours on the skin. To fulfill this objective, perfumers can only work with a restricted palette of materials.
These powerhouse “beast mode” fragrances all smell the same after eight hours, and then just endure until you have to scrub them away. As we start to use fragrances constructively to match and change our moods, we’ll need them to fade after four to eight hours so we can either choose to top up or to change our aromatic outfit.
Upcycled materials are coming in. Expect to experience a new leather aroma made from upcycled osmanthus flowers by Payan Bertrand. I’m featuring it in a forthcoming collaboration with niche blog CaFleureBon. Aromas associated with nourishment are coming in, but not the overly sweet scents we’ve had for the last decade. These are neutral, not sweet nor savory: blends of grains, tea, spices and herbs.
We’re seeing the reemergence of raw materials with aromas that give us a sense of stability, grounding us and helping us to feel safe in unpredictable times. Incense, musks and patchouli, rose and moss.
Chypres, mossy fragrances are reaching a new generation of people who want gender neutral. They don’t feel “old fashioned” to young buyers who have never smelled them before, so there’s room for the classic combination of bergamot, oakmoss, labdanum and patchouli to find a whole new appreciative audience.
- Keta Burke-Williams Co-Founder and CEO, Ourside
Trend I'm bullish on: As our consumers continue to become more informed and concerned about ingredients and sustainability, I am excited to see a push for more conscious ingredients and manufacturing processes like local manufacturing and opting for more sustainable practices.
Trend I think will peter out: Consumers are asking for the unexpected more than ever, so in the coming year, I expect traditional scent pairings to decline as brands look for unexpected ways to bring novelty to our supporters.
- Jose Alvarez Co-Founder, Abbott
Hero ingredients have been a trend in skincare for a while now, and I am excited to see this trend expand into perfumery. The access to special ingredients in perfumery is something that deserves the spotlight, and we can finally begin that storytelling process.
We work with materials that are made in very special ways, either because of their social impact on a community or their environmental impact on nature. Also, when talking about a hero ingredient in perfumery, there are all the beautiful mood-enhancing and aromatherapeutic benefits that are associated with them.
At the risk of being wrong (again), I think you will see less and less interest in celebrity fragrances. This is something that I have been saying for a while now and have been wrong about, but I believe the consumer has gotten really educated and knowledgeable.
You are seeing the rise of niche and independent perfume brands that have artistry as their center point, and that is what is resonating with consumers. The consumer wants to smell different and to have a different perspective versus being influenced by a celebrity.
- Courtney Somer Founder and CEO, Lake & Skye
We saw fragrance sales soar in the past two years, and I think this will continue, if not get even stronger. In 2023, scents will continue to be more intertwined with emotions and with experimentation such as blending and changing fragrance throughout the day to match your mood and environment.
People will reach for “feel good” scents to support what we’ve known it has the power to do, to uplift and change a person’s emotions for the better. I think we’ll also see the popularity of travel sizes, including purse sprays and rollerballs.
- Itika Oldwine-Grimble Founder, Oldvine Fragrance
I've noticed that a lot of people are layering their scents. So, instead of wearing one signature scent or one scent at a time, they will spray themselves with two or three scents that they love and make their own unique fragrance, and I find that to be pretty chic when you think about it.
I've been noticing a move from essential oils to fine fragrances and, while I think that essential oils are lovely, I believe the fine fragrance will be the go to in 2023.
- Judah Abraham Founder and CEO, Slate Brands
We believe that boutique fragrances with a more creative and authentic marketing approach will continue to take over as the consumer audience start to explore away from only purchasing the more expensive, traditionally marketed fragrances.
Based on 2008 figures and how the category is positioned, we predict fragrance sales will not dip as much as other products in the luxury category and some beauty categories. Consumers will continue to purchase select high-end fragrances they believe provide a luxury experience, but will be willing to explore the more value-added, premium fragrances that are more affordable as they build out a fragrance wardrobe.
While benefit-inducing scents and consumers purchasing/exploring new scents online may continue to grow, premium scents that clearly add value without losing the luxurious experience should really stand out and grow in 2023.
- Ariana Silvestro Founder, Scent Lab
Better-for-you products: Consumers are looking for products that not only smell amazing, but are safe to use. There will be more attention to ingredients and what’s inside.
High-quality products for less: Consumers are going to be looking for premium products that they love at an affordable price, especially given the current market conditions.
Having fun with fragrance: Consumers are taking a more laidback and fun approach to fragrance, using both personal and home fragrance as a way to express themselves.
Less of a focus on celebrity/name-brand fragrances: Consumers will be shifting away from the celebrity and name-brand fragrances to instead shop fragrances that really speak to them, their individuality and their personality.
- Jonathan Brinbaum Global General Manager, Bulgari Parfums
Bulgari has seen continued elevation in the fragrances industry. Ingredient quality, responsible sourcing, fragrance intensity and concentration, unique creations and craftmanship are trends that have supported 2022 category growth and that we expect to continue in 2023.
Likewise, we believe the lifestyle ritual around our parfums will keep rising. This trend existed, but the post-COVID behaviors are clearly showing an acceleration there. This is exactly the reason why Bulgari Parfums entered an elevated journey at the end of 2019 with less, yet more elevated boutiques and new product lines such as the Allegra collection.
Fragrance has (re)become a high-end beauty accessory over the last three-fourth years for customers looking for quality and uniqueness. The fragrance market will keep differentiating in this sense. With Bulgari’s reaffirmed positioning of High Jeweler first and foremost, we follow the same path on Parfums, and aim to be key players in the select circle of high-tier fragrance makers globally.
- Ransley Carpio Head of Venture Investments, Fortress Brand
Fragrance demonstrated great resilience this year. As we enter into 2023 and the economic headwinds, i believe fragrance will be a discrete luxury that consumers will continue to use for self-expression. As an investor and partner to Perfumer H and 19-69, I continue to believe strongly that fragrance should evoke an emotional experience, transporting us to another time or place.
Other trends that I’m watching for the coming year include how creators interact with fragrance on social channels; changes in form factor (including air fresheners as a supporting cast to the assortment! Vacation Inc); sensory and energy messaging (Vyrao, 5 Sens); and will split my interest between two distinct price points: accessible, allowing for broad democratized distribution, versus luxury-priced brands who have a cult fellowship.
- Greta Fitz Founder and CEO, Ascention Beauty Co.
In 2023, we'll see a more simplistic and nostalgic approach to fragrance development, where scents will be reminiscent of happier and simpler times.
We'll continue to see an alchemistic approach to fragrance, where wearers are expecting their fragrances to do more for them. Instead of just smelling good, they'll choose scents that offer a holistic and responsible approach to their spirituality and wellness.
- Walter Johnsen VP of Product Development, Interparfums
When I consider the idea of fragrance trends, I see so many in the industry commenting on trends through the idea of sustainability, consumer education, niche verse commercial, naturals verse synthetics, retail outlook, packaging, manufacturing process, etc.
The ideology of how people describe fragrance trends has become more about business practices and less about what we see in terms of actual olfactive likes and or a movement in a general direction in which something is developing or changing in scent appreciation.
Yes, sustainability, consumer education, best manufacturing practices, natural verse synthetic are all amazing points of discussion, but these are all part of a way of doing business. These are how my team conducts business. It is part of our DNA, and all of these points evolve as we as a society evolve. I would also say that trends come and go, and when we talk about these very vital points, it is not from the idea of a trend but as a way of business lifetime commitment.
With all that said, if I was to speak of what we are seeing in the world of fragrance trends, there are two particular directions I have been looking at for some time and I have already started to incorporate in our fragrance development.
Funny enough, when you have been around for a while, you start to notice how some trends evolve, and in my first direction, it has been a revisit of the past. I have seen over the past few years, when talking with gen Z and millennials, many of the true classic fragrance from the past are all new to them (literally). So, when they smell some of our great classics for the first time, it is like a whole new experience and an appreciation for the artistry of perfumery
So, for me, a big trend that I like to call retrofit is about looking at the classic fragrances from history and reimagining them in a new modern way or looking at classic ingredients, for example, verbena, tonka bean, mimosa, opopanax, benzoin, hedione, frankincense, these types of ingredients that have not been used in a long while and bringing them back to create new olfactive experience. In this trend, it is all about everything old is new again.
The second olfactive experience gaining traction is what I call the great outdoors, using the earth and all of the elements as inspiration for creating scents that bring us closer to nature. With the COVID lockdown, people were thirsty for the great outdoors, and we could see this in all forms on social media and media engagement: the travel plans, the bike rides in the park, the hikes and camping in the mountains, the ocean, the lakes, all destinations that brought us outside and made us once again feel alive.
In the time when we had temporarily lost that connection to nature, we realized how important it is to us and our survival. This led to an increase of scent exploration that brought people the ability to connect with nature, to spray their fragrance and through their olfactive sense feel the wind from the ocean breeze, the brisk smell of the pine hiking in the mountain, feeling the grass under their feet, running their hands through the water as they paddle on the lake. This fragrance trend gives us the ability to reconnect to our humanity in connection to nature by being present in our scent memory.
In the end, fragrance is all about connecting to the soul of our consumers and the development/trend is rooted in looking at society and listening to the emotions, the memories and the desires of our consumers. When you connect, it’s magic. The rest is just the icing.
If you have a question you’d like Beauty Independent to ask beauty entrepreneurs, executives and experts, please send it to editor@beautyindependent.com.
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