Beauty Brands Stay Positive Heading Into Holidays Despite Weak Consumer Sentiment
The holidays are always a stressful time, but they could be more stressful than usual this year as consumers face higher credit card delinquencies, pricier everyday staples like groceries, slow job growth and wages that aren’t keeping pace for many households. Still, they’re ready to spend on beauty treats for themselves and their loved ones during Black Friday/Cyber Monday.
Despite the economic pressures, beauty has proven remarkably resilient. The category posted strong sales in the first nine months of the year, with prestige and mass beauty growing in dollars and units to land at $24.1 billion and $54.5 billion, respectively, from January through September, according to Circana. The market research firm estimates about one-third of consumers are planning to gift beauty products this year, “a meaningful increase from last year,” notes Larissa Jensen, global beauty industry advisor at Circana.
“The momentum is especially strong among higher-income households and those with children, millennials and gen Z, who are not only buying for others, but also indulging in self-gifting,” she elaborates in a blog post. “These groups are more likely to associate holiday shopping with bringing joy or practicing self-care, signaling a prime opportunity for beauty brands and retailers to craft messaging that celebrates both giving and personal wellness.”
Data from consumer intelligence firm NielsenIQ supports beauty shoppers’ preoccupation with self-care this holiday season. Nearly 48% of shoppers report that self-care merchandise is on their holiday list this year, rivaling clothes and entertainment.
“This holiday season consumers are redefining what value means. A serum that multitasks. A mass mascara that performs like prestige. A regimen that fits both mood and budget,” writes Jacqueline Flam Stokes, managing director of beauty and health at NielsenIQ, in a LinkedIn newsletter called “Beauty Acuity.” “Beauty brands must balance value and aspiration more carefully than ever. Shoppers still want beauty that tells a story, but they want to feel smart about it. The winning brands will create affordable moments of luxury that do not require trade-offs.”
American consumers have plenty of reasons to seek self-care. Consumer sentiment dropped to a six-month low last month, with the confidence index tracked by The Conference Board falling to 94.6 from 95.6 in September. The decline was especially pronounced in younger consumers under the age of 35 and those above 55 making an annual income of less than $75,000. Higher-income consumers earning more than $200,000 a year are more positive.
The longest government shutdown in history, which ended Nov. 12 after 43 days, left millions of federal workers without pay and threatened Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits for over 42 million people. It also was a drag on consumer activity. Low-income households represent between 9% and 15% of beauty shoppers at the industry’s top retailers, according to NielsenIQ.
While shoppers may be generous with beauty gifts, they’re expected to pull back elsewhere. Trade organization The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts November’s and December’s retail sales to increase between 3.7% and 4.2% from last year to reach $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion. Holiday sales in 2024 rose 4.3% to reach $976.1 billion.
Per person, consumer spending is predicted to be down slightly from last year. According to a consumer survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics on behalf of NRF of 8,200 adult shoppers, consumers anticipate spending $890.49 on holiday gifts, food and decorations this year, down 1.3% from $901.99 last year.
Financial and professional services firm Deloitte has a dimmer outlook, predicting that holiday sales will be up between 2.9% and 3.4% to $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion. In 2024, holiday retail sales increased 4.2%. PricewaterhouseCoopers figures that annual holiday spend will drop by about 5% this year, the largest drop recorded since 2020, with gen Z shoppers pulling back spending the most, by about 23%.
To shed light on how beauty brands are preparing for the difficult holiday shopping season, for the latest edition of our ongoing series posing questions related to indie beauty, we asked 15 brand founders and executives the following questions: How do you think your brand will perform this Black Friday/Cyber Monday? What’s your promotional strategy and have ongoing tariff pressures shifted them? Overall, are you feeling positive, negative or somewhere in between about this holiday season?
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Jill Salamandre CEO, Beekman 1802 Throughout the year, the consumer has been seeking value in skin and body care through promotional pricing, bundles, discovery sizes and kits. Given the macroeconomic environment this season, we are anticipating that to continue and intensify during this major consumer promotional window.
Our overall strategy continues to highlight value with price, efficacy and benefits as well as drive larger basket sizes to buy more, save more. Fortunately our manufacturing is largely U.S. based so we have not shifted our strategy due to tariff pressures. Only our advent calendar construction was affected, so we made fewer at a higher price point. The irony is we sold out before Halloween. We could have sold more due to the value of product and the overall presence, indicating she will pay up for the right value.
Given the consumer propensity to trade down at the moment and our entry-level prestige pricing, we are feeling cautiously optimistic with our accessible price points for clinically proven skincare. The question is whether it is a season for shoppers to include themselves as they have in the past or just buy for others. Time will tell.
- Aaron Hefter Founder and CEO, Imarais Beauty
We’re expecting a stronger Black Friday/Cyber Monday performance this year compared to last, largely driven by the significant retail expansion we’ve achieved in 2025. With Imaraïs Beauty now launched in major U.S. retailers, including Target, Ulta Beauty and Sprouts, our strategy this season is intentionally focused on driving traffic, awareness, and conversion into those retail partners rather than prioritizing deep DTC discounting.
Our promotional approach is aligned with the needs of our retail partners, focusing on strategic promotions, increased in-store visibility and focused social media marketing. Tariff pressures haven’t meaningfully altered our approach. We’ve planned well for this year and set up both Canada and U.S. operations, and we are operating from a position of stability.
Overall, I’m feeling very positive about this holiday season. With our expanded retail footprint, stronger brand awareness and a more omnichannel strategy than in previous years, we’re entering Black Friday/Cyber Monday with greater momentum and more ways for consumers to discover and shop the brand than ever before.
- Andriana Gavrilovic CMO, Allies of Skin
We’re expecting to perform better than last year. In 2024, we saw a lift driven in part by the launch of our Vitamin C & Omegas Cleansing Balm and a 35% off site-wide offer. This year, we started earlier with an extended early Black Friday event at 30% off, followed by a full Black Friday/Cyber Monday period with 30% off everything, including our customer favorites Multi Peptides & GF Advanced Lifting Serum and Copper Tripeptide Ectoin Advanced Repair Serum.
Giving customers more time to shop during one of our only sale periods and simplifying the offer has helped build consistent momentum. We’ve also seen steady growth in returning customers throughout 2025, so we feel confident that this year will surpass last year.
Our strategy this year focuses on keeping things straightforward and easy to navigate, focusing on core routines and our most popular products. We kept the offer consistent at 30% off during both the early access period and the main Black Friday window. We removed exclusions for peak dates so the experience felt as exciting and as seamless as possible.
Tariff pressures are still part of the broader environment, but they didn’t shift our holiday promotional approach. We’ve been making adjustments throughout the year to manage costs and inventory, so for Black Friday/Cyber Monday specifically, we were able to stay focused on consistency for customers.
Overall, we’re feeling cautiously positive. Consumers are still very value-focused, but we’re seeing continued interest in science-led, results-driven skincare, categories within the industry that have strong engagement and consumer interest.
Our extended promotional window and streamlined offering meet customers where they are. We’re coming into the season supported by strong loyalty and healthy return rates. While the market inevitably carries some uncertainty, we remain confident in both our positioning and the strategy we’re executing this year.
- Kate Assaraf CEO, Dip
Every year at Dip, we treat Black Friday and Cyber Monday the same way, as a chance to give back to our customers, not discount ourselves into oblivion so our retailers have difficulty selling Dip products in store. We are very mindful of Small Business Saturday being sandwiched between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and we do not want our retailers' sales to suffer.
In Dip's first year, our gift with purchase for Black Friday was a $52 item value. This year, it’s something we’re even more excited about, a product that retails for $104 totally free for customers who reach a reasonable spend threshold.
My philosophy is pretty simple: Our customers show up for us all year, and they deserve something special in return. Rather than racing to the bottom on pricing, we focus on creating moments of surprise and gratitude.
Even with the ongoing tariff pressures that have affected manufacturing costs, we’ve stayed true to our approach: no panic discounts, no cutting corners. Our community is loyal, our products perform and our customers know Dip stands for quality over gimmicks.
I’m feeling genuinely positive about this holiday season; probably the most confident I’ve ever felt heading into Black Friday. I interact with our customers a lot, and I love being able to do this for them.
- Anastasia Bezrukova Founder and CEO, Minori
Honestly, this year looks very different for us compared to last year. We’re continuing to put most of our energy into growing our wholesale partnerships, so we’ve decided not to run any site-wide discounts on Black Friday or Cyber Monday.
This was a conscious choice. Our brand ethos has always centered around mindful consumption, and with so much economic pressure on everyday shoppers right now, pushing a one-time sale just doesn’t feel right for us. Our goal is for customers to shop only when they truly need something, not just because of a promotion or the urgency of a holiday push.
In terms of feeling positive or negative, I’d say I’m somewhere in the middle. On one hand, I’m incredibly grateful that our business has continued to grow despite the broader economic pressures. Seeing Minori double year-over-year is something I don’t take for granted.
At the same time, it’s impossible not to feel the weight of what so many Americans are dealing with right now. In that context, worrying about holiday sales can feel a bit trivial.
Overall, I’m hopeful. I think more consumers are approaching beauty purchases with intention rather than impulse, and my sense is that this values-driven mindset will continue into the holiday season.
- Shannon Davenport Founder and CEO, Esker Beauty
Overall, I’m feeling cautiously optimistic about this year’s Black Friday/Cyber Monday period compared to last year. We launched our promotion this week and the early performance signals are encouraging. That said, I’m mindful of not letting a strong start cloud the broader picture. What feels different this year is the level of discipline in our approach.
We rebalanced paid spend across channels, tightened our forecasting and SKU alignment and created a more connected strategy across DTC, Amazon and Ulta. Instead of each channel operating independently, we’re finally seeing learnings flow across the business in a way that’s improving efficiency (with halo effects) and predictability.
This year, tariffs actually haven’t changed our Black Friday/Cyber Monday strategy much. We did have some issues at customs that caused some delays, but it's hard to tell exactly why.
Otherwise our supply chain is pretty locked in and we’ve been able to absorb most of the headwinds without shifting promos or pricing. That said, the ongoing uncertainty does keep us extra tuned into our forecasting and inventory decisions.
On the macro side, between inflation, ongoing tariff uncertainty and our politically charged environment, it can feel oddly dissonant to be pushing promotions right now. At the same time, we’re seeing a countervailing trend, which is that people appear more eager than ever to embrace moments of joy, comfort and small rituals, and that sentiment is showing up in traffic and engagement.
There’s a real appetite for leaning into the holidays early this year, almost as a pressure valve for everything happening around us. Because of that mix of signals, I’d describe my outlook as realistic but hopeful.
We’re navigating a fragile economic backdrop, but we’re also entering the season with more operational clarity and tighter channel strategy than in years past. So far, the customer response suggests that, even in a complicated moment, people are still willing to invest in things that feel grounding, intentional and giftable.
- Nathan Newman Founder, The Stem Company
This Black Friday/Cyber Monday, we’re expecting stronger performance than last year. Interest in stem-cell-based beauty has risen. Just look at the conversations happening across pop culture this year with figures like Kim Kardashian openly embracing stem cell technology.
Our community has grown alongside that momentum. What sets The Stem Company apart is that our stem-cell innovation is plant-based and we grow the plants ourselves in our labs in California. That level of vertical integration gives consumers tremendous confidence in our science, quality and transparency.
Our promotional strategy is more intentional than it’s ever been. Because we are vertically integrated and manufacture our formulas in-house through our own labs, we aren’t navigating the same supply chain or tariff pressures that many beauty brands are facing right now. That gives us the flexibility to offer promotions that are meaningful to our customers without compromising margins or inventory stability.
Women, in particular, really focus on looking and feeling their best throughout the holiday season, and we always see a lift in demand for solutions that deliver both glow and confidence. Shoppers are discerning, but they clearly want to invest in products that make a meaningful difference in their skin. We’ve seen that our formulas, which offer true efficacy and a clear scientific foundation, continue to outperform.
- Shay Hoelscer Founder and CEO, Privé
We’re anticipating a stronger performance this Black Friday and Cyber Monday compared to last year. Privé has continued to build momentum across both our consumer and professional channels, and with growing brand awareness, stronger storytelling around our clean, food-grade formulas and deeper loyalty from our community, we’re entering the season in a really healthy position.
Our promotional strategy this year is intentional rather than aggressive. As an independent, mission-driven brand, we don’t chase deep discounting. We focus on value. Our offers are curated to reward loyalty, introduce new customers to the core of our line and create a meaningful point of entry into a brand built around quality, kindness and high performance.
Despite ongoing tariff pressures, we’ve stayed committed to keeping Privé fairly priced. Instead of compromising on our formulas or ingredients, we’ve focused on operational efficiencies to maintain promotions that feel good for both our customers and our business.
Overall, I’m optimistic about this holiday season. Beauty remains a category people turn to for self-care, gifting and moments of joy, and our customers continue to resonate with our message of "Beauty is Kindness."
We’re hearing strong enthusiasm from our retailers and partners and our community is incredibly loyal. So, even with macroeconomic pressures, I believe brands with authenticity, transparency and real performance—brands like Privé—will continue to win.
- Amy Granger Co-Founder and President, M2U NYC
We’re cautiously optimistic heading into Black Friday/Cyber Monday, especially since this is our first year offering Black Friday/Cyber Monday deals on Amazon. We’re curious to see whether the promotion drives incremental sales or shifts purchases away from our DTC site.
Because M2U NYC already offers everyday affordable pricing, Black Friday/Cyber Monday is the only time we run a 20% discount—our deepest of the year—while the rest of the year we focus on bundle-and-save offers to deliver value without deep discounts.
Consumer sentiment has been soft so far in Q4, particularly in October, and we’re hoping shoppers are simply delaying holiday spending rather than pulling back entirely. Overall, we feel moderately positive. Our clean, fun and gift-friendly products resonate with value-conscious consumers, and we hope that translates into a strong holiday season.
- Kevin Gould Co-Founder, Glamnetic
I’m feeling very positive about the holiday period this year. The press-on nail category continues to grow extremely quickly, and that momentum is carrying into Q4.
Even though the consumer is more price sensitive in the current macro environment—salon nail prices are up roughly 50% over the last four years—rising service costs have naturally encouraged shoppers to explore at-home options that fit their budgets. For Glamnetic, the ability to offer a truly high quality press-on experience at an approachable price point has been important.
Consumers want something that feels elevated and trend-forward, and we invest heavily in making sure our designs reflect what’s happening culturally and seasonally.
We’ll be running select promotions throughout Black Friday and Cyber Monday week, but we’re intentionally avoiding being overly promotional. The goal is to offer value while staying disciplined in a period where many brands feel pressure to over-discount.
- Christie Cipriano Brand Marketing Manager, The Good Patch
I think we will see some great performance for our Black Friday/Cyber Monday promotion this year, and we believe we’ll be able to outperform our promo from last year. We’ve approached Black Friday/Cyber Monday a little differently this year, and we’ll be testing various components of our marketing efforts that we do believe will allow our promotion to be very successful.
When it came to Black Friday/Cyber Monday planning this year, our goal was to get ahead of the noise while also driving the value of our brand and products. We worked diligently to launch our sale ahead of Black Friday weekend to ensure it wouldn’t get lost in the rush of the biggest promotional period of the year.
We also refined our promotional strategy by taking learnings from past sales and campaigns to inform our direction. While we’re running the same 30% off site-wide offer, excluding bundles and sets, as we did last year, several elements of our approach have changed. We’re launching earlier, rolling out more creative iterations across paid social and leaning more intentionally into the key differentiators that set us apart as a brand. We’ve also strengthened the way we communicate product benefits within the sale messaging, which is something we didn’t lean into as much in prior years and we expect will help reinforce the value of the promotion as well as our products.
Our products are plant-powered, dermatologist-tested and -formulated using only clean and premium ingredients, which are all attributes that consumers look for in their wellness and skincare routines. With that said, it felt like a miss for us to not highlight these aspects in past years. We also rolled out creative that is a bit more elevated and we feel better highlights the premium nature of our products.
Another key focus for us was weaving in the lifestyle component of our products, which wasn’t something we always leaned into in past campaigns. Whether you’re a busy mom, someone who is always on the go or someone who just needs a little extra wellness and skincare support, our products are designed to be easy to use, convenient and effective additions to your routine.
In terms of ongoing tariff pressures, they have not posed significant challenges for us as our products are made in the U.S.A. and we currently only sell and ship within the country. As a result, we’ve been able to maintain our current pricing. We know the impact that tariff increases have had on businesses, so we feel fortunate to be able to continue operating as is.
I’m feeling pretty positive about the holiday season this year. I’m confident in our Black Friday promotional strategy as well as our marketing strategy for the rest of the year. We’re a small but mighty team and we feel very prepared going into Black Friday/Cyber Monday and the holiday season. Outside of Black Friday, we have a few key areas we’ll be focusing on as this year comes to an end and we have some very exciting things planned for 2026 that we’re looking forward to.
- Douglas Little Founder, Heretic Parfum
If last year felt like navigating a dimly lit forest, this year offers a bit more moonlight. The brand has matured, sharpened its silhouette and cultivated a more devoted audience, one that seeks the uncanny, the transportive and the beautifully strange.
Because of that, I expect performance to rise modestly. Not in an explosive, fireworks-in-the-sky sort of way, but rather in a steady, smoldering burn—more intentional purchases, stronger repeat behavior and higher conversion from the community we’ve spent all year conjuring.
The strategy this year is controlled temptation. We’re focusing on tightly curated offers rather than broad, slashing discounts: Bundles that feel like spellbooks with complete, immersive experiences, limited-run fragrances that speak to collectors and strategic incentives rather than deep cuts.
Tariff pressures have certainly played their part in shaping the architecture. They’ve nudged us toward protecting margin with more value-focused offers instead of heavy discounting. Think alchemy rather than fire sale, adding perceived richness, layering in exclusives, giving customers something they can’t get any other time of year.
We're somewhere between cautiously optimistic and quietly delighted. The world is chaotic: tariffs, supply chain unpredictability, shifting consumer moods, but there’s a palpable hunger for products with soul. For objects that carry story, atmosphere and ritual. That is where this brand thrives.
So, positive, but with an awareness that the path ahead requires intention, agility and a little magic. If we stay true to our narrative and keep whispering to the right audience, the season may unfold in our favor.
- Ebru Karpuzoglu Founder and CSO, AveSeena
We anticipate surpassing last year’s performance, driven by a customer base that is tired of mystery and marketing fluff. Our growth isn’t coming from flash sales, it’s coming from trust. Our customers are shopping intentionally, replenishing the daily rituals they know work.
Because we prioritize depth and efficacy over volume, we’re seeing sustainable retention even in a tighter economy. Crucially, this approach has kept our acquisition costs stable while increasing our customer lifetime value (LTV).
AveSeena is taking a contrarian approach. We aren’t relying on traditional gift-with-purchase tactics or holiday bundles. Instead, our promotion is radical transparency.
We are launching content that pulls back the curtain on the industry, revealing the clinical reality of ingredients and manufacturing. In a time of economic pressure, consumers don’t just want a discount. They want to know they aren’t being tricked.
We are offering them the science and the inside scoop, so they are empowered. This creates a proprietary trust moat that discount-heavy brands cannot replicate.
We’re feeling positive. The industry is finally shifting from hype to substance, and that is exactly where we live. Consumers are skeptical right now. They are fact-checking claims and scrutinizing labels. That plays to our strengths.
While other brands fight for attention with noise, we are winning by offering clarity and scientific truth. It’s a season for fundamentals. Our supply chain is agile, our formula IP is secured, and we are ready for it.
- Will Henderson Founder, Skincare Generics
Last year was about proving our concept. This year, we’re scaling it and doing it profitably. We’re expecting a bigger Black Friday/Cyber Monday than last year because we now have more social proof, a larger repeat customer base, a stronger brand story in market and expanded distribution via TikTok Shop. Instead of relying on blanket discounts, we’re being intentional with bundles, tiered offers and returning customer perks.
Our model is lean by design, so fortunately tariffs haven’t forced us to make significant changes. We don’t pay for celebrity campaigns or $50 glass jars, so we’re still able to offer luxury formulas without luxury prices.
I feel quite positive heading into the holidays. Shoppers are more value conscious than ever, and Skincare Generics meets them where they're at by giving them the results they want without the prestige markup. That’s exactly what this economy is asking for.
- Vera Oh Co-founder and CEO, Voesh
This is our second year participating in Black Friday/Cyber Monday as a direct-to-consumer brand, and we’re building on strong momentum from last year. Our holiday campaign in 2024 helped significantly boost our DTC sales, and our goal this year is to double that performance.
That said, we’re entering a very different landscape. Economic uncertainty has led many brands to start discounting earlier and offer deeper promotions. Instead of reacting with aggressive markdowns, we’ve taken a more strategic approach. We recently updated our promotional plan to reflect shifting shopper behavior while staying true to our brand values. Our KPIs are ambitious, but we are tracking performance closely and making informed adjustments in real time.
Despite the challenges, we are feeling cautiously optimistic. Prestige body care continues to grow and wellness-minded consumers are seeking more than just deals. They are looking for products that support their skin health, elevate their daily rituals and offer a moment of calm. That is exactly what Voesh delivers.
We believe our positioning at the intersection of therapeutic results and sensorial K-beauty innovation gives us a unique edge. With clean, microbiome-friendly formulas, mood-lifting scents and thoughtful gifting options, we are confident our collection will resonate during a season when consumers are craving both value and care.
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